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Cost Effective Transition Toward Electric Bus Fleets in Urban Transport
Mohamed, Mohamed Ali Hassan
Mohamed, Mohamed Ali Hassan
Date
2025-04
Authors
Advisor
Type
Thesis
Degree
Description
A Master of Science thesis in Engineering Systems Management by Mohamed Ali Hassan Mohamed entitled, “Cost Effective Transition Toward Electric Bus Fleets in Urban Transport”, submitted in April 2025. Thesis advisor is Dr. Mohamed Ben-Daya and thesis co-advisor is Dr. Rami Afif As'ad. Soft copy is available (Thesis, Completion Certificate, Approval Signatures, and AUS Archives Consent Form).
Abstract
The transition to electric bus (EB) fleets signifies a critical shift in urban transportation, curbing the pressing environmental issues caused by traditional diesel buses. To ensure a successful transition, transit authorities must overcome challenges such as limited EB driving range, the need for charging infrastructure, and the resulting strain on the electrical grid—while also capturing opportunities including bus fare increases, government subsidies, and environmental and social benefits. This research develops a multi-period mixed-integer linear programming model, which optimizes long-term EB transition through the integration of key inherent transition planning elements: (1) Financial planning, addressing internal, environmental and social costs along with revenue generation and budget limitation; (2) Technical and infrastructure requirements, covering EB and charging infrastructure selection and placement; (3) Existing bus network operations, analysing route and fleet characteristics; (4) multiple stakeholder perspectives, from government subsidy provision to electric utility grid capacity alignment; and (5) Modelling elements, considering time-dependent factors, fleet age, and a flexible optimization model. This comprehensive approach addresses a notable gap in existing literature. The model's effectiveness is validated using simulated and practical data drawn from Dubai's Roads & Transport Authority, with scenario testing to assess robustness and adaptability. Major findings highlight the importance of long-term transition planning, revealing that: (1) dwell time significantly affects total cost and full electrification feasibility; (2 profit maximization—via fare adjustments, subsidies, and environmental/social benefits—emerges as a primary objective; (3) a pure EB purchasing policy accelerates full fleet electrification by a decade, with minimal financial impact; and (4) enforced electrification targets carry significant financial implications and directly shape the transition plan. The developed model provides transit authorities with a valuable tool to evaluate trade-offs, optimize fleet and infrastructure investments, assess policy levers, and develop realistic electrification targets. Future work may explore interplay of bus requirements, dwell time, and route frequency, enhance data accuracy, and analyse electrification rate trade-offs.