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Study of the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes on local climate in Six Mega Global Cities in the 21st Century
Sabobeh, Lara Ali
Sabobeh, Lara Ali
Description
A Master of Science thesis in Civil Engineering by Lara Ali Sabobeh entitled, “Study of the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes on local climate in Six Mega Global Cities in the 21st Century”, submitted in July 2024. Thesis advisor is Dr. Tarig Ali and thesis co-advisor is Dr. Md. Mortula. Soft copy is available (Thesis, Completion Certificate, Approval Signatures, and AUS Archives Consent Form).
Abstract
Urbanization, characterized by the rapid expansion of city areas and populations, is a significant trend of the 21st century, particularly in developing countries. This thesis investigates the impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes on local climates in six major global cities—Beijing, Cairo, Delhi, Istanbul, Lagos, and London—from 2000 to 2023. Utilizing supervised machine learning algorithms, including Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Gradient Tree Boost (GTB), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), Landsat imagery of these global cities was classified, integrating indices like NDVI, NDBI, and MNDWI to enhance LULC classification accuracy. The methodology involved obtaining and preprocessing satellite imagery, applying machine learning algorithms for LULC classification, and analyzing the relationship between LULC changes and local climate represented by land surface temperature (LST) utilizing the GEE platform. Additional data layers like elevation and slope were incorporated to improve model performance, and accuracy was assessed using the following metrics: overall accuracy, kappa statistics, and F-1 scores. The SVM proved to be superior to other algorithms. The findings revealed significant patterns of urban expansion and vegetation loss, highlighting the impact of urbanization on local climates. Urban areas experienced the highest expansions in Istanbul (137.8%) and Lagos (over 100%), while vegetation cover declined in all cities, with Lagos experiencing the highest reduction at 59%. These changes exacerbate urban heat island effects and increase climate-related vulnerabilities. Urbanization raises LSTs, while areas with more vegetation have lower LSTs. The study compared LULC change patterns and socioeconomic indices between developed, developing, and upper-middle-income countries, represented by the selected global cities. London showed a modest increase in developed areas (58.45%) compared to rapid urbanization in Cairo, Lagos, and Delhi. The findings highlight the need for customized urban planning and climate adaptation strategies, with enhanced international cooperation and support for sustainable urbanization initiatives in developing regions being crucial to mitigate the adverse effects of LULC changes on local climate, promoting sustainable urban areas.